Ironic Reports

Wildflower Farms, 08/27/2026

Wildflower Farms · August 27, 2026

Venue & Data Sources

Primary source
ERA5-Land reanalysisCopernicus · Open-Meteo
Station records
MOHONK LAKEGHCN USC00305426
Nearest station
5.8 mi NNE100% complete
Analysis windows
10yr temp · 30yr precip
Nearest station · 5.8 mi NNE

This report presents historical climatology, not a forecast. The core statistics come from Copernicus ERA5-Land reanalysis (via Open-Meteo.com, CC-BY 4.0) sampled at the venue location; the nearest NOAA station supplies record extremes and a precipitation cross-check. Conditions on your event date may differ from historical patterns.

Temperature

Average high79°F
Average low60.6°F
Record high90°F2010-08-31
Record low45°F2008-08-20
Sunrise6:17 AM
Sunset7:37 PM
Hourly temperature climatology
Shaded band = 10th–90th percentile: about 80% of past years fall inside it for a given hour, with roughly a 10% chance of running hotter and 10% cooler.

Heat & cold risk

IndicatorHistorical frequency
Years with a day above 90°F (±7 days)27%
Years with a day above 95°F (±7 days)0%
Days below 55°F19%

Extreme-heat rows use the last 30 years; cold rows and typical temperatures use the most recent 10 years (150 sample days). Heat gets the longer look-back because a warming climate makes past heat more likely to recur, while past cold is less representative of today.

August 27 at Wildflower Farms sits in one of the most climatologically favorable temperature windows of the year. Historically, the average high reaches 79°F and the average low settles near 60.6°F, placing typical daytime conditions squarely in the sweet spot for outdoor celebrations. The hourly climatology reinforces this: afternoon temperatures typically peak around 78°F in the mid-afternoon before easing back into the mid-60s by late evening — a gentle, guest-friendly arc across the day.

That said, the full historical range deserves attention on both ends. The all-time recorded high for this period is 90°F, reached on August 31, 2010, and in 27% of years on record, temperatures have climbed to at least 90°F during the late-August window. That makes tail-risk heat planning appropriate — shade access, hydration stations, and vendor check-ins on heat-sensitive items are worth building into the plan. On the cooler side, the record low is 45°F, logged on August 20, 2008, and in 19% of years, temperatures have dipped below 55°F at some point during this period. That's most likely to be a late-night or early-morning figure, but if your event runs into the evening, light wraps or a plan for guest comfort as temperatures ease toward the 60s is a sensible precaution. The mean heat index across typical event hours is 72.1°F — comfortable, with no indication of significant heat stress under average conditions.

Humidity & Comfort

Event-hours dew point60.6°Fnoticeable · rising through the evening
Relative humidity70%
Hourly dew point climatology

Humidity is noticeable at Wildflower Farms in late August, though it falls well short of oppressive. The mean dew point across typical event hours is 60.6°F, and hourly dew point averages hold in the upper 50s to low 60s throughout the day. The trend is worth noting: dew points historically rise through the afternoon into the evening, with mean values climbing toward 61–62°F after 7:00 PM. That puts late-evening conditions right at the threshold where humidity becomes something guests with humidity-sensitive hair or makeup will notice.

Mean relative humidity historically runs around 70%, which is consistent with a late-summer evening in the Hudson Valley. For hair and makeup teams, the 60°F+ dew point range is the planning signal: touch-up availability, setting sprays, and hairstyle choices that account for ambient moisture will serve the wedding party well. This isn't a "swamp" scenario, but it's not dry Rocky Mountain air either — styling that performs in moderate humidity should be the baseline assumption.

Winds

Typical sustained (event hours)5.4mph
Typical gusts (event hours)13.2mph
Prevailing directionWSW
Max gust on record56.1mph2011-08-28 (reanalysis)
Hourly wind climatology

Wind planning thresholds

IndicatorHistorical frequency
Days with gusts over 25 mph (tent attention)17%
Days with gusts over 40 mph (structural concern)1%

Frequencies are from hourly reanalysis across 30 years; the max gust on record is a station-gauge reading, which captures brief peak gusts that reanalysis smooths out. A rare gust can therefore exceed a threshold that reads as <1% of days.

Winds at Wildflower Farms on August 27 are historically light to gentle throughout the day. Mean sustained speeds during typical event hours average 5.4 mph, with mean gusts around 13.2 mph. The prevailing direction is west-southwest. Afternoon hours tend to bring the peak of the daily wind cycle, with sustained averages nudging toward 6 mph and gusts approaching 17–18 mph in the 2:00–5:00 PM window before easing as the evening progresses. Under average conditions, no special wind planning is required and normal outdoor operations are expected.

The historical extreme, however, is worth flagging as context: the maximum recorded gust for this period is 56.1 mph, documented on August 28, 2011 — a date tied to Tropical Storm Irene's passage through the region. That's an outlier driven by a tropical system, not a routine August afternoon. In 17% of years, gusts have exceeded 25 mph on days within this window, and in 1% of years, gusts above 40 mph have been recorded. For day-of planning, that tail risk is the reason to confirm tent anchor ratings and engineering specifications with your rental provider in advance, and to have a clear vendor communication plan if a tropical or severe system were to develop. Under typical conditions, florals, décor, and outdoor sound should all operate without wind-driven complications.

Precipitation

Daily precipitation probability (±7 days of event date)

At leastHistorical probability
0.01"42%
0.10"23%
0.25"14%
0.50"9%
1.00"3%
Wettest day on record8.21"2011-08-28

Rain is a genuine planning variable for a late-August date in the Hudson Valley. Historically, there is a 42% chance of measurable precipitation (0.01 inches or more) on August 27 — meaning rain is as close to a coin flip as climatology gets, and the data support treating wet weather as a primary planning assumption rather than a contingency. The probability of moderate rainfall reaching 0.25 inches or more is 14%, and the chance of 0.5 inches or more comes in at 9%. Zooming out to the three-day window around the event date, the likelihood of at least some measurable rain at some point climbs to 74–80%, which is useful context for multi-day setup and teardown logistics.

The mean precipitation on a late-August event day is 0.12 inches — modest on average, but averages can obscure the tail. The wettest single day on record for this period was 8.21 inches, logged on August 28, 2011, again associated with Tropical Storm Irene. For practical planning, the 42% daily rain probability and the 14% moderate-rain probability together point clearly toward confirming full wet-weather tent infrastructure with sidewalls, flooring, and drainage management. Guest pathways, parking surfaces, and ground saturation should all be walked through with the rain plan — not the fair-weather layout — as the operational baseline. Vendor load-in routes, electrical cable elevation, and flooring transitions are the specific areas where proactive planning pays dividends at this probability level.

Severe Weather

Severe weather climatology near the venue

ThreatHistorical signal
Severe thunderstorm wind (50 mi, ±7 days)3 reports · 50% of years
Hail (50 mi, ±7 days)2 reports · up to 0.75"
Tornado (25 mi, ±14 days, 1950–present)1 tornadoes · ~1.3% annual probability · strongest 1
Tropical systems (150 mi, event month)22 storms on record · ~11.4% annual probability · 10 direct / 4 moderate / 8 glancing (by closest approach)
Thunder heard at nearby airport (±7 days)7.1% of days

Storm reports 2004–2005; tornado record 1950–2025. Report databases are not exhaustive.

Tropical systems that passed within range (most recent first)

StormSeasonTypeClosest approach
DEBBY2024Trop. depression141 mi · glancing
HENRI2021Trop. depression6 mi · direct
FRED2021Trop. depression63 mi · moderate
ISAIAS2020Trop. storm56 mi · moderate
IRENE2011Trop. storm37 mi · direct
CHARLEY2004Trop. depression130 mi · glancing
BERYL1994Trop. depression16 mi · direct
BOB1991Cat 2138 mi · glancing
CHRIS1988Trop. depression45 mi · direct
BELLE1976Trop. storm70 mi · moderate
DORIA1971Trop. storm42 mi · direct
DIANE1955Trop. storm78 mi · moderate
CAROL1954Cat 3116 mi · glancing
UNNAMED1949Trop. storm47 mi · direct
UNNAMED1944Trop. storm149 mi · glancing
UNNAMED1933Trop. storm119 mi · glancing
UNNAMED1915Trop. storm37 mi · direct
UNNAMED1893Cat 131 mi · direct
UNNAMED1893Trop. storm33 mi · direct
UNNAMED1888Trop. storm41 mi · direct

Showing the 20 most recent of 22 systems within range.

The severe weather climatology for Wildflower Farms in late August reflects the broader Hudson Valley pattern: thunderstorm activity is real but not dominant, while tropical system proximity is the more historically notable risk. Thunderstorm wind reports have been recorded in 50% of years in the local severe weather record, and hail has appeared in 50% of years as well, with a maximum hail size of 0.75 inches on record. A single tornado has been documented within the climatological search area — an F1 event on August 27, 2020, carrying an annual probability of roughly 1.3%. Thunder occurs on approximately 7.1% of late-August days, so organized convection is possible but far from certain.

The more historically significant severe weather context for this venue is tropical. Over the full IBTrACS record dating to 1851, 22 tropical systems have tracked within influence range of this location during the late-August window, averaging 1.2 storms per decade. The annual probability of any tropical influence reaches 11.4%, with a 5.1% annual probability of a direct-hit track. Notably, Henri (2021) passed within 6 miles of the venue as a tropical depression, Isaias (2020) tracked within 56 miles as a tropical storm, and of course Irene (2011) — the source of both the 8.21-inch rainfall record and the 56.1 mph gust record — passed within 37 miles. None of this implies a tropical system is likely on this specific date; the annual probability reflects how often one arrives in the neighborhood across the full late-August window. It does reinforce that the extreme tail events in the precipitation and wind sections are not random statistical artifacts — they have a documented meteorological cause, and tropical monitoring in the days approaching August 27, 2026 is a standard professional precaution.

Sun, Moon & Sky

Sunrise6:17 AM
Sunset7:37 PM
Golden hour begins7:01 PM
Civil twilight ends8:07 PM
MoonFull Moon100% illuminated
Peak midday UV index10very high · clear-sky · sunscreen recommended

Historical daytime sky conditions

SkyShare of daytime hours
Clear34%
Partly cloudy15%
Mostly cloudy17%
Overcast35%

Sunrise on August 27 is at 6:17 AM and sunset at 7:37 PM, with civil twilight extending to 8:07 PM. Golden hour begins at 7:01 PM — a beautiful natural window for portrait sessions and outdoor ceremony moments, assuming skies cooperate. Historically, late August afternoons at this location are partly cloudy to variable: 34% of days are classified as clear, 15% partly cloudy, 17% mostly cloudy, and 35% overcast. That means roughly half of all days offer at least some meaningful sunshine, while about a third carry full cloud cover — a reminder that photography contingency planning for overcast light is worth a brief conversation with your photographer.

The moon on August 27, 2026 is a Full Moon at 100% illumination. For an outdoor evening wedding at a venue like Wildflower Farms, that's a genuinely special asset — ambient moonlight across the grounds, beautiful conditions for outdoor portrait sessions after sunset, and a romantic visual backdrop that no lighting vendor can replicate. For events running outdoors late into the evening, it's worth building that moment into the photography timeline deliberately. On the UV side, solar noon historically produces a mean of 626.5 W/m², with peak observations reaching 792.3 W/m² — a UV index of 10, rated very high. Sunscreen is recommended for guests and wedding party members with outdoor exposure during the midday and early afternoon hours, particularly during outdoor ceremony setup and pre-ceremony portraits.

Summary & Next Steps

August 27 at Wildflower Farms carries a genuinely favorable climatological profile for an outdoor wedding, anchored by comfortable average temperatures, light winds, and one of the most spectacular astronomical backdrops of the year in a Full Moon at 100% illumination. The planning challenges are real but well-defined: precipitation probability at 42% means rain readiness belongs in the base plan, not the backup drawer, and the historical connection between late-August tropical systems and the venue's most extreme weather records makes tropical monitoring in the days before the event a professional standard.

The path forward is straightforward. Confirm tent infrastructure with full wet-weather capability — sidewalls, flooring, and drainage — and walk the site using the rain plan as the operating layout. Review tent anchor engineering specifications with your rental provider in the context of the historical maximum gust on record. Build golden hour portrait time into the timeline deliberately, and brief hair and makeup teams on the evening dew point trend. As the date moves inside the operational forecast window, a meteorology update will sharpen all of these variables from historical likelihood into actionable day-of guidance. This report gives you the historical foundation; closer-in monitoring will complete the picture.

Prepared by Ironic Reports. Historical patterns inform planning; monitor live forecasts beginning 10 days before your event.